November 1921 – February 1922
Following the end of the Great War, a conference was convened at the behest of the United States to reduce the military expansion of the great powers. This was known as the Washington Naval Conference.
Historically, the disarmament treaty signed at this conference limited Japan's capital ships to 60% of the tonnage allowed to Britain and the United States, sparking significant domestic backlash in Japan. Additionally, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was not renewed due to strong American pressure, and in its place, the Four-Power Treaty between Japan, Britain, the United States, and France was signed. Some researchers suggest that the United States, already considering a confrontation with Japan, saw the Anglo-Japanese Alliance as an obstacle.
Furthermore, the Nine-Power Treaty, which included China, recognized the territorial integrity of China. This effectively legitimized Han Chinese dominance over other ethnic groups (such as the Manchus, Tibetans, and Uyghurs) on the Chinese mainland. It is said that the United States and Britain, lacking experts on China's ethnic issues, agreed to this in exchange for market access to the Republic of China (dominated by the Han Chinese).
By 1949, the People's Republic of China had strengthened its control over Tibet and Xinjiang, and it is estimated that millions of people were killed in these regions by the 1970s.
The Japanese Strategy
"Your Highness, at the upcoming Washington Conference, the issue of the Republic of China will be raised. Britain and the United States intend to recognize Han Chinese dominance over the Manchus, Uyghurs, and Tibetans. I believe Japan should voice its opposition to this."
"Takashiro, why is that?"
"Your Highness, the Qing Empire was a political system where the Manchus ruled over the Han Chinese and Uyghurs, but these were originally separate nations with distinct ethnic identities. In accordance with the principle of self-determination proclaimed during the Great War, we should advocate for 'respecting the self-determination of all ethnic groups on the Chinese mainland, starting with the Han Chinese.' Moreover, the process of Han Chinese dominance could lead to large-scale civil wars and massacres."
"I see. Self-determination is indeed important. But if we advocate for that, wouldn't we also have to grant independence to the Korean Peninsula?"
"Yes, Your Highness. I believe the Korean Peninsula should be granted independence in the near future. Initially, Japan annexed Korea to protect it from Russia's southward expansion. However, the current revolutionary government in Russia lacks the capacity for such expansion. Additionally, with the establishment of the Legitimate Russian Imperial Government in Karafuto, it would be impossible for Russia to extend its influence to the Korean Peninsula while facing Karafuto. Furthermore, the annexation of Korea has deeply wounded the pride of the Korean people and could leave lasting resentment."
"Indeed. If Japan were a weak nation and the United States said, 'We'll protect you, so become one of our states,' I doubt we would accept such an offer."
"Exactly, Your Highness. Geopolitically, it would be wise to recognize Korea's independence, sign a security treaty, and use it as a buffer zone between Japan and the Russian revolutionary government. We have been secretly gathering information on the massacres and planned famines carried out by the Russian revolutionary government. If this information is disseminated in Korea, it will be impossible for anyone to gain support by aligning with the Russian revolutionary government."
"That's true. However, I doubt the Western powers, with their many colonies, will promote self-determination."
"Your Highness, there's no need to worry about that. The Western powers have no qualms about applying double standards. They will see China as China and themselves as themselves."
Japan's Demands
Based on this discussion, the Japanese delegation was instructed as follows:
Self-determination for all ethnic groups on the Chinese mainland should not be hindered by the great powers.
(This could be interpreted as allowing intervention to promote self-determination.)
If the above is accepted, Japan will recognize the independence of the Korean Peninsula (as a protectorate) and open its markets to the West.
However, Korean independence is a last resort. Ideally, only self-determination for the ethnic groups on the Chinese mainland should be recognized.
The independence of the Korean Peninsula was a contentious issue, as it was unclear whether the Imperial Diet would ratify such a treaty. Even if a treaty were signed, Japan might refuse to ratify it, ensuring that only self-determination for China's ethnic groups was recognized. This would allow Japan to exert influence in Manchuria if the Qing Empire were to regain independence.
Additionally, by explicitly entrusting the disarmament negotiations to the cabinet, the Regent prevented backlash over military reductions.
These instructions were encrypted and transmitted to the delegation.
(At the time, trans-Pacific submarine communication cables were already in place.)
However, the United States had intercepted and decrypted the message.
Takashiro Soryu, fully aware that the code would be broken, deliberately included the following passage:
"The United States lacks experts on the Chinese mainland and cannot foresee the global situation 50 or 100 years from now. If China unifies and stabilizes, its population will exceed one billion, and its economy will grow. It will then strengthen its military and become the world's largest superpower. At that point, Japan and the United States will become its vassal states, if not outright colonies. We must secure self-determination for the ethnic groups on the Chinese mainland at all costs."
The U.S. Response
"Indeed, the emergence of a nation with over a billion people would pose a threat to the United States. Perhaps it would be wise to follow Japan's strategy and push for the division of China. Japan likely aims to restore the Qing Empire as a puppet state, centered around the South Manchuria Railway. In that case, it would be best to make the Republic of China a U.S. puppet and pit it against the Qing Empire."
Thus, the conflicting interests of the great powers collided.
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A/N: Thank you for reading Chapter 38!
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